Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Global rating agency Standard & Poor's on Tuesday announced that it intends to become a majority shareholder in CRISIL Ltd by making a voluntary conditional open offer of Rs 680 per share.
"The examination will cover several aspects, including standalone profiles of the Indian subsidiaries, our assessment of the strength and quality of parent support, and translation of global ratings to the Crisil scale," Crisil Ratings Senior Director Raman Uberoi said.
In line with other rating agencies and economic organisations, Crisil on Friday forecasted 7.1 per cent economic growth in the wake of an excellent monsoon, but warned that the fiscal deficit would overshoot the target besides lower export growth.
Rating agency Crisil Ltd has acquired EconoMatters Ltd, a London-based energy and gas advisory firm, and its subsidiary companies for over Rs 15 crore.
The fast upward movement in the capital markets, which saw the Sensex touching 3-1/2 year high last week, was due for correction in the short term, credit rating agency Crisil said on Tuesday.
The agency had in May projected an economic growth between 7.7 and 8 per cent for this fiscal and Monday's revision comes within a week of rival Fitch Ratings, and Citigroup revising the same to 7.5 per cent from 7.7.
Rating agency Crisil said corporates, especially those in the auto, aviation, consumer durables and oil sectors, will be "severely impacted" by rupee depreciation due to large overseas debt and limited hedging.
The domestic currency will appreciate to touch the 50 level by next March provided certain measures are taken by the government urgently, the rating agency's research wing said in a note.
The average cost of a vegetarian thali became dearer by 10 per cent in June due to the jump in onion, potato, and tomato prices, a report said on Friday. However, a decline in the broiler price contributed to a decrease in the cost of a non-vegetarian meal, as per Crisil Market Intelligence and Analysis' monthly "Roti Rice Rate" report. The cost of veg thali, which comprises roti, vegetables (onions, tomatoes and potatoes), rice, dal, curd and salad, increased 10 per cent to Rs 29.4 per plate in June from Rs 26.7 in the year-ago period, and was higher when compared to Rs 27.8 in May 2024, it said.
Preparing a 'vegetarian thali' got dearer by 34 per cent in July as compared to June because of the soaring tomato prices, an arm of a rating agency said in a report on Monday. A non-vegetarian thali was relatively less impacted and the price of preparing one went up by only 13 per cent, Crisil's 'Roti Rice Rate' report for August said. The inflation in the thalis is largely driven by the 233 per cent jump in tomato prices to Rs 110 per kilogramme in July from Rs 33 in June, the report said.
The profitability of public sector banks would decline by over 40 per cent by 2005-06 due to re-pricing of the government securities portfolio, credit rating agency Crisil said.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
Rating agency Crisil on Friday said growth rates witnessed in the current fiscal in several sectors are expected to continue for 3-5 years, even as it predicted rising wages in the information technology sector by 2007-08.
The cost of a representative home-cooked vegetarian thali has witnessed a 5 per cent on-year increase in January, while that of the non-veg thali declined 13 per cent, a report said on Wednesday. According to Crisil Market Intelligence and Analytics (MI&A) Research 'Rice Roti Rate' estimates, the rise in prices of ingredients like pulses, rice, onion and tomato made home-cooked veg thali costlier in January, while decline in poultry rates helped in the fall in non-veg thali rates.
The rating agency expects that key fiscal indicators of state governments -- revenue deficit and gross fiscal deficit - may deteriorate from 2009 though the impact will begin to be felt in the current fiscal. It further said that the adverse effect of lower revenue growth will be aggravated due to higher development and non-development expenditures.
The Crisil study covered 600 companies excluding financial services and oil companies, representing 71 per cent of the overall market capitalisation of India Inc.
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The agency also warned the government of overshooting the fiscal deficit target at 4.8 per cent due to poor revenue growth and pegged it at 5.2 per cent this fiscal.
Credit rating agency Crisil has announced that it has reached a preliminary understanding with Equifax Inc of the US, and Tata Capital Ltd to set up a credit information company, which provides credit histories and checks on retail borrowers.
Crisil said the next fiscal could be a year of new leadership and old challenges.
In a new report, the agency said the gross non-performing assets for the sector will rise to around 4 per cent on an asset size of over Rs 5,50,000 crore by March 2009, as against 2.7 per cent at the end of March 31, 2007. The rise in bad debt will translate into more losses for lenders.
Corporate India's credit quality showed a sharp improvement in the second half of FY22, but high input prices and withdrawal of pandemic-related relief measures can pose pressures in the new year, rating agencies said on Friday. Crisil Ratings, which rates a large number of financial sector entities, reported an improvement in the credit ratio -- the number of upgrades to downgrade -- to 5.04 times in the second half of this financial year, from the 2.96 per cent in the first half of the fiscal. It attributed the improvement to a sustained rebound in demand, which lifted revenues of most sectors to pre-pandemic levels and proactive relief measures by the government that cushioned the pandemic blow.
Credit rating agency Crisil on Wednesday said depreciation in the rupee will shave off up to Rs 4,000 crore (Rs 40 billion) from the profits of Nifty companies in the December quarter.
Concerned over the fallout of the Red Sea crisis and severe shortage of containers against the backdrop of a steep decline in merchandise exports in August, the Union government is pulling out all the stops to find a solution. To begin with, the government has devised a strategy aimed at boosting container supply and supporting exporters.
Led by Trent, which hit its lifetime-high recently, apparel retailers have gained between 10 per cent and 36 per cent over the past three weeks. Given the network of physical stores, these stocks shall be major beneficiaries of the unlock theme, with most states doing away with Covid restrictions. Amid improving footfall, analysts expect the sector to post double-digit growth in FY23.
During 2023, the Indian real estate sector - both housing and commercial - witnessed buoyancy fuelled by demand, supply, and absorption, and the sector is banking on the upcoming Budget to keep the momentum going. Mumbai-based Sattva Group wants the government to focus on the critical pillars for long-term growth. The company emphasised on the infrastructure boom with increased allocation, lower goods and services tax (GST) rates, incentives for affordable housing and single-window clearance to fast-track projects and support liquidity.
Crisil said a complete phase out of CST is necessary.
Government officials believe that central bridge projects perform better than state projects due to stricter checks and balances.
Vedanta group chairman, Anil Agarwal, 69, is well known for his business journey from a scrap dealer from Bihar to a London-based globe-girdling metal and oil and gas conglomerate with revenues of $19 billion. Now his abilities to keep his group from over-leveraging itself will be put to the test. Over the years, Agarwal, now based in London, set up the conglomerate via acquiring iron ore producer Sesa Goa, Cairn's oil producing assets in India, and Electrosteel Steel.
FMPs remain an option for investors who believe interest rates could head downward over time and wish to lock in the current rates. TMFs have very low expense ratios, which makes them cost-efficient.
Diamond industry expects revenues to drop by 20-25% in the current financial year.
The current capital flight is a short-term phenomenon, the agency said.
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
The agency has predicted that monsoon will also be a major factor.
Crisil Ltd on Tuesday said the Centre's sops to Food Corporation of India including cut in interest rate on bank loans to FCI by 1.5%, will negatively impact the bottom line of public sector banks pulling down pretax-profit by 4.5% in the near term.
Indian banks would require additional Rs 8 lakh crore to meet the minimum capital adequacy under Basel III norms, ratings agency Crisil has said.
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